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Storm planning becoming more difficult with climate unpredictability

City of Toronto's new snow response system is put to the test by big winter storms.
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Footprints in the snow around Humber's North campus

Snow in Canada isn't a surprise, but sometimes it can be the amount of snow that's a surprise. 

Under Environment Canada's new colour-coded weather alert, both the snow storm on Jan. 15 and the storm on Jan. 25 started out as yellow, meaning its impact was expected to be "moderate, localized, and/or short-term." 

But soon those snowfall warnings were changed from yellow to orange. 

Orange alerts, which are less supposed to be less common, are labelled as "severe weather likely to cause significant damage, disruption, or health impacts." 

But these severe weather events may start becoming more common and more unpredictable due to climate change. 

Climate predictions are built using past climate data, but climate change is invalidating those results. 

Kent Moore, a University of Toronto professor of physics, explains that climate models need "to continue studying current events," to be able to predict this new changing climate. 

More unpredictable extreme weather events make it difficult for cities to make plans to deal with any upcoming seasonal maintenance. 

For example, outside of Toronto, some Ontario municipalities are struggling with a road salt shortage because winter this year came in early and very wet, leading demand to outstrip supply. 

But unpredictability doesn't mean no planning can take place and Toronto is looking for ways to deal with more frequent storms. 

One solution it seems is the City of Toronto’s Major Snow Event Response Plan (MSERP), which was created after the city reviewed criticisms made over last winter's lacklustre snow clearing response. 

The MSERP was first put to the test after the Jan. 15 storm, and according to a statement from Ward 11 Councillor Dianne Saxe's director of communications Benjamin Dooley, "the impact of the MSERP has been significant" and "the City to keep running and complaints were minimal." 

Toronto’s MSERP is facing another test as it was activated again in the wake of the record-setting snowfall on Jan. 25.